2026-27 Season Predictions
The IcePick model rates every team from last season's goal differential, regressed for the offseason, then simulates the season and the real playoff bracket 10,000 times. Kalshi prediction-market prices are shown for comparison; the edge column is model probability minus the market's normalized probability.
The model is deliberately roster-blind: it has no idea who signed where on July 1. When it disagrees with the market, the market usually knows something the model does not; treat green and red cells as conversation starters, not picks.
| Team | Proj Pts | Range | Playoffs | Division | Cup | Fair Odds | Market (Kalshi) | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Colorado Avalanche | 108 | 91-125 | 91% | 43% | 14.0% | +614 | 9¢(6.9%) | +7.1pp |
 Dallas Stars | 100 | 83-117 | 79% | 20% | 7.1% | +1301 | 5¢(4.0%) | +3.1pp |
 Tampa Bay Lightning | 101 | 84-118 | 74% | 26% | 7.0% | +1322 | 8¢(6.0%) | +1.0pp |
 Carolina Hurricanes | 101 | 84-117 | 73% | 28% | 6.8% | +1364 | 12¢(9.3%) | -2.4pp |
 Buffalo Sabres | 99 | 82-116 | 69% | 20% | 5.9% | +1601 | 4¢(2.8%) | +3.1pp |
 Minnesota Wild | 96 | 80-113 | 70% | 14% | 4.8% | +1996 | 6¢(4.8%) | -0.1pp |
 Utah Mammoth | 96 | 79-112 | 67% | 12% | 4.3% | +2209 | 2¢(1.2%) | +3.1pp |
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 95 | 79-112 | 58% | 16% | 3.9% | +2445 | 3¢(2.0%) | +1.9pp |
 Ottawa Senators | 96 | 80-113 | 61% | 15% | 3.8% | +2553 | 3¢(2.0%) | +1.8pp |
 Vegas Golden Knights | 94 | 77-110 | 66% | 25% | 3.7% | +2625 | 9¢(6.9%) | -3.2pp |
 Montreal Canadiens | 96 | 79-112 | 58% | 14% | 3.5% | +2757 | 5¢(3.6%) | -0.1pp |
 Edmonton Oilers | 93 | 77-110 | 66% | 24% | 3.5% | +2765 | 8¢(6.5%) | -3.0pp |
 Boston Bruins | 95 | 78-111 | 55% | 13% | 3.4% | +2833 | 2¢(1.2%) | +2.2pp |
 Washington Capitals | 94 | 78-111 | 55% | 14% | 3.1% | +3126 | 5¢(3.6%) | -0.5pp |
 Philadelphia Flyers | 92 | 76-109 | 49% | 11% | 2.6% | +3746 | 2¢(1.2%) | +1.4pp |
 Columbus Blue Jackets | 91 | 74-108 | 45% | 10% | 2.4% | +4067 | 3¢(2.0%) | +0.4pp |
 Anaheim Ducks | 88 | 72-105 | 51% | 14% | 2.1% | +4754 | 4¢(2.8%) | -0.8pp |
 New York Islanders | 90 | 73-106 | 41% | 8% | 1.9% | +5248 | 2¢(1.2%) | +0.7pp |
 New York Rangers | 89 | 72-106 | 38% | 7% | 1.7% | +5680 | 3¢(2.0%) | -0.3pp |
 Los Angeles Kings | 87 | 71-104 | 46% | 11% | 1.7% | +5961 | 2¢(1.2%) | +0.4pp |
 Detroit Red Wings | 88 | 71-105 | 35% | 5% | 1.5% | +6436 | 1¢(0.4%) | +1.1pp |
 Nashville Predators | 87 | 71-104 | 41% | 3% | 1.4% | +7043 | 2¢(1.2%) | +0.2pp |
 New Jersey Devils | 87 | 70-104 | 33% | 5% | 1.3% | +7419 | 4¢(3.2%) | -1.9pp |
 St. Louis Blues | 86 | 70-103 | 39% | 3% | 1.3% | +7712 | 1¢(0.4%) | +0.9pp |
 San Jose Sharks | 84 | 67-101 | 38% | 8% | 1.2% | +8030 | 7¢(5.2%) | -4.0pp |
 Winnipeg Jets | 86 | 69-103 | 38% | 3% | 1.2% | +8233 | 2¢(1.2%) | -0.0pp |
 Florida Panthers | 87 | 70-103 | 31% | 4% | 1.1% | +8829 | 16¢(12.5%) | -11.4pp |
 Seattle Kraken | 85 | 68-101 | 39% | 9% | 1.1% | +9246 | 1¢(0.4%) | +0.7pp |
 Calgary Flames | 83 | 66-100 | 34% | 7% | 1.1% | +9424 | 1¢(0.4%) | +0.6pp |
 Toronto Maple Leafs | 83 | 67-100 | 23% | 2% | 0.8% | +12721 | 4¢(2.8%) | -2.0pp |
 Chicago Blackhawks | 80 | 64-97 | 22% | 1% | 0.5% | +18768 | 1¢(0.4%) | +0.1pp |
 Vancouver Canucks | 74 | 57-91 | 13% | 2% | 0.3% | +31150 | 1¢(0.4%) | -0.1pp |
Market prices are bid/ask midpoints on Kalshi's Stanley Cup series, normalized to sum to 100% across all 32 teams. Offseason futures are thinly traded; treat them as rough crowd estimates, and confirm any price on the operator's own platform. Prices fetched Jul 4, 2026.
Kalshi / Polymarket US (prediction markets)
Available in California (18+). Federally regulated by the CFTC; a tribal lawsuit challenging Kalshi is on appeal, so this could change.
PrizePicks Arena, Underdog, DK Pick6 (peer-to-peer fantasy)
Operating in California, but legally gray: the state Attorney General's July 2025 opinion deems paid fantasy contests illegal, though it is advisory and unenforced so far.
Sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, ...)
Not legal in California. Voters rejected legalization in 2022; the next serious attempt is expected on the 2028 ballot.
Offshore betting sites
Unlicensed and illegal everywhere in the US. IcePick Analytics does not and will not link to them.
About these numbers
Odds and market prices on IcePick Analytics are displayed for informational and entertainment purposes only. IcePick Analytics is not a sportsbook, exchange, or fantasy operator; it does not accept, place, book, or facilitate wagers of any kind, has no affiliation with any operator or the NHL, and receives no compensation from any gambling operator.
Predictions and win probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. The model is intentionally roster-blind: it does not know about offseason signings, trades, or goalie changes, so when it disagrees with a market, the market usually knows something the model does not. Nothing on this site is betting, financial, or investment advice.
Sports betting through sportsbooks is not legal in California. Federally regulated prediction markets and peer-to-peer fantasy contests set their own eligibility rules and age minimums. You are responsible for knowing and following the laws of your jurisdiction. This site is not directed at persons under 21. Market prices are third-party data, may be delayed, and may differ from prices currently offered by any operator.
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